Does the Better-Than-Average Effect Show That People Are Overconfident?: Two Experiments.∗
نویسندگان
چکیده
We conduct two experiments of the claim that people are overconfident, using new tests of overplacement that are based on a formal Bayesian model. Our two experiments, on easy quizzes, find overplacement. More precisely, we find apparently overconfident data that cannot be accounted for by a rational population of expected utility maximizers with a good understanding of the nature of the quizzes they took. The finding is of particular interest because Benoit and Dubra (2011) have shown that the vast majority of the existing findings on the better-than-average effect are actually consistent with Bayesian updating.
منابع مشابه
Does the Better-Than-Average Effect Show That People Are Overconfident?: An Experiment*
* This paper was previously circulated as “A Proper Test of Overconfidence”. We thank Uriel Haran for help with data collection as well as the staff and facilities of the Center for Behavioral Decision Research at Carnegie Mellon University. # email: [email protected] Abstract We conduct a proper test of the claim that people are overconfident, in the sense that they believe that they are better...
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We conduct two experiements of the claim that people are overconfident. We develop new tests of overplacement which are based on a formal Bayesian model. Our two experiments, on easy quizzes, find overplacement. More precisely, we find apparently overconfident data that cannot be accounted for by a rational population of expected utility maximizers with a good understanding of the nature of the...
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